Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Negotiating with Terrorists

The following is a spiritual perspective on the news from one of the leading elder statesmen of the Messianic Jewish movement, Israeli Dr. Daniel Juster. This view is information I wish every Christian knew. This should give intercessors excellent target-acquisition for the times.

The Debate on Negotiating with Terrorists

By Daniel Juster

JERUSALEM/July 2: Last May, a verbal firestorm erupted between President George W. Bush, Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama. The occasion was President Bush's visit to Israel and his address to the Israeli Parliament (the Knesset). The speech was very well received. In spite of his poor approval rating in the States, the President is very popular in Israel. In his speech, the President sharply criticized those who believe that we should negotiate with terrorists; he equated this orientation with appeasement. The Israeli leadership applauded his stand. However, a few days later (much to Israel's embarrassment), the Jerusalem Post revealed that Israel had been negotiating via Egyptian mediation with Hamas for a cease fire.

Senator Obama took issue with Bush; he reacted as if he was the object of the President's criticism. Democrats cried, 'Foul!' countering that the President used a state visit to Israel to play politics and unfairly criticize Senator Obama. They asked John McCain to repudiate what Bush had said. Senator McCain, however, stood with President Bush and said that Senator Obama was naïve in saying that he would negotiate with sponsors of terrorism without preconditions. McCain asked, what would Obama say to convince them that their behavior was wrong and that they should change? Obama's position would undermine the public stand of the United States and European powers not to negotiate with Hamas as long as they do not accept the existence of srael. Negotiations would surely empower Hamas. The President believes that political isolation, economic boycotts and military intervention against terrorists is the right policy.

Senator Obama responded eloquently by stating that negotiation was neither weakness nor appeasement. Reagan negotiated with the Russian communists as did Kennedy, with respect to the Cuba missile crisis. However, Russia was at that time the leader of a communist empire that controlled one third of the world. Kennedy's negotiations with Russia included an ultimatum! I do not think that Obama has this in mind. Obama criticized the President for the predicaments to which the United States is currently exposed: the Iraq war, Iran becoming more of a problem and political and military failure in Afghanistan. He then went on to argue that a significant reason for these problems was the U.S. lack of strong engagement by negotiations. Surely, this topic will be a central part of the campaign in the fall.

Is the Problem Lack of Negotiation?

My view of the situation is at odds with Senator Obama; living in the Middle East has clarified my perspective on the issues. I do not believe that the problem is lack of negotiations. Rather, the issue is primarily an unwillingness to enforce standards. This is an endemic problem among Western powers. In addition, many Westerners do not believe that Islamic radicals really act primarily out of religious convictions; they assume they are motivated by politics as they themselves are. However, these convictions are unshakable. Any negotiated position, cease fire, etc., legitimizes the terrorists, proclaims Western weakness, emboldens Islamic radicals, and is only a temporary lull for the sake of building a more fierce and violent Islamic offense. This view has been confirmed in public by Hamas spokesmen. The religious motivation of Islamic fascism simply will not compromise, split the difference, or embrace long term peace.

I believe there is only one answer to Islamic fascism and that is to defeat it. The reason we have not made progress is not for lack of negotiation. There is plenty of that; a good example is the European carrot and stick diplomacy being attempted with Iran. The real problem is that the carrot is large and the stick is very small. The large carrot is not working, because Iran wants nuclear weapons. So far, the sanctions have been very limited and strong sanctions have been rejected by the U.N. Security Council, largely due to Russian and Chinese pressure.

Recently the Swiss and the Austrians have made significant business deals with Iran for gas production and trade. The United States howled, as did Israel, but to no avail. Iran is able to buy weapons, arm Hamas and Hezbollah and wreck havoc in Lebanon. When Reagan negotiated with the Russians, it was from a place of real strength, because the Soviets were in severe decline. They accepted an agreement that benefited the U. S. in order to save themselves from economic disaster. No such situation exists in Iran today.

Really, the central issue is not of talking or not talking; though I do not think we should lend credibility to terrorists by talks without preconditions. Rather, the issue is standing up to the terrorists and enforcing very strong sanctions. If that does not work, the Western powers should be prepared to use strong military action. Radical Islam despises the weakness of the West. The spread of radical Islam is partly fueled by the perception that they are winning against the weak and fearful West. President Bush's failure to de-fang Iran and Syria is not through lack of negotiation, but because the Western allies are not willing to grasp the nettle and take strong measures. So we talk tough and act weak. The President has not acted according to "cowboy diplomacy." Toughness has not been tried and found wanting. It has not been tried!

The Response of the West

The history of backing down before Islamic radicalism is not pretty and has produced a very dangerous world. President Carter failed to stand up to the terrorists who kidnapped the U.S. embassy staff in Iran. This only served to embolden the radicals. At the time it may have seemed as if they could not truly be players on the world stage but the West's lack of fortitude has allowed a rogue nation to export terrorism across the globe. The Shah's regime had many flaws but is far preferable to the Islamic fascist dictatorship under the Ayatollahs. During the Reagan administration the U.S. failed to act in Lebanon. After the terrorists bombed the U.S. marine barracks and killed over two hundred personnel, defense secretary, Casper Weinberger, unilaterally disobeyed Reagan and refused to convey the order to retaliate. Reagan backed down!

I watched this with grief and dismay. The U.S. should have retaliated and demonstrated to the terrorists that their actions would bring swift and painful consequences. Instead, the U.S. pulled out. Lebanon was meant to be a safe haven for Arab Christians - half of them have now fled the country. It was a truly lovely country but the U.S. did nothing to counter the radical Islamic agenda.

The same lack of resolve moved the U.S. to push for Palestinian elections. The consequences were a disaster, with Hamas being elected. When will the Western politicians learn that absolute democracy is not necessarily just? 51% can vote to destroy the 49%. Political parties that espouse terrorism should be illegal. The Nazi party is illegal in Germany and other parts of Europe. Why did the U.S. force elections on Israel where Hamas could run? How foolish!

How Dangerous is Islamic Fascism?

When Senator Obama says that the threat from Iran and Islamic radicals is less than the former threat posed by the Soviet Union, he is really missing the main issues. The Russians were interested in preserving the world. In addition, they were a disciplined world force with centralized power in Moscow. If Moscow had fired a nuclear missile, there would have been an assured and instant retaliation. The calling card would be clear. This prevented Russia from doing so.

Would Iran send a nuclear missile against Tel Aviv if they acquire the ability? Perhaps, but that would be dangerous for them, since the world would know who was responsible and retaliation would be swift, certain and punitive. But here is the danger: the Islamic radicals are decentralized and fight an asymmetric war of terror. They would be glad to secretly plant a nuclear bomb in New York, Washington or Tel Aviv. A whole city and more could be destroyed. Against whom do we retaliate? Iran could as easily arrange for one of their proxies to put a device off shore from Tel Aviv and set it off, or plant a suitcase bomb in Washington. Terrorist nations would deny involvement. Who do we bomb? Do we bomb Tehran? Do we bomb the Al Qaeda camps? The danger is enormous.

Has President Bush Acted with too much Belligerence?

President Bush has stood up against Islamic terror more than any world leader, but he has had little support from Congress and the Western allies. The issue is not too much bluster, but too much bluffing. The U.S. cannot even get significant military contributions from Europe in the Afghan theater. The radicals know the West is weak. Unless we wake up and realize that we are in World War III, we will soon be in deep, deep trouble. We should heed Islamic terror scholar Steve Emerson on these matters. Emerson explains that the goal is not just to destroy Israel, but to conquer the whole world and establish a global Muslim caliphate. The vilest methods are acceptable. Western nations are mired in relativism and do not act with strength.

Islamic Hatred for Israel is a Source for Hope!

The central focus of Islamic terror and hatred is Israel, all other foci - the U.S., the West and India - are secondary, and yet we have great hope. Why? Because the destiny of Israel is to be a supernatural power to break the back of Islamic terror. This will lead to a great harvest in the Muslim nations of the world. We live in an impossible situation in Israel but in these difficult days, more and more Israelis are finding their Messiah, eshua of Nazareth. This is the situation that the prophets foresaw long ago. Whatever plans men or demons may have they are not taking the One who sits in heaven by surprise. The sure Word of God will prevail - this is our unyielding anchor of hope.


Saturday, December 8, 2007

NIE Report "Bushwhacked" President

Later this weekend I will be putting out a special focus Israel News Launch on my website and to subscribers to Israel News on IsraelPrayer.com in order to bring out more information on the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report everyone is talking about.

My personal take is that this report has done far more damage to the security of the United States and Israel than most have comprehended. The reason I think so is because it has done more to undermine U.S. credibility in assessing what is going on in the Middle East than anything in recent memory.

It is a another sign of the lawlessness of our times when a sitting president has his knee caps shot out by the counter-agendas within the U.S. intelligence community. Instead of serving the elected leadership of the nation, these Washington foreign policy and intelligence "professionals" believe they have the right to capsize the boat our president is sailing.

Not everyone cares whether Israel is swallowed up by terrorist forces and they are just as short sighted as Neville Chamberlain was 60 years ago.

What does that have to do with intelligence assessments? A lot.

As the Wall Street Journal wrote last week in an article called High Confidence Games, "Our own 'confidence' is not heightened by the fact that the NIE's main authors include three former State Department officials with previous reputations as 'hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials,' according to one intelligence source. They are Tom Fingar, formerly of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research; Vann Van Diepan, the National Intelligence Officer for WMD; and Kenneth Brill, the former U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."

Another news source indicated that none of the three main authors have expertise in Middle Eastern affairs.

In the concluding statement of this article WSJ editors wrote, "Our intelligence services are supposed to inform the policies of elected officials, but increasingly their judgments seem to be setting policy. This is dangerous."

It sure is! It is called anarchy - lawlessness - and it is how nations implode at the governmental level.

The NIE, is the National Intelligence Estimate. Why estimate? Because it is rare to have solid concrete evidence about what other nations are doing within their own borders - especially true of those hostile to our nation. Intelligence estimates are made based on a much lower level collection of evidences that have been pieced together to form a best guess picture of reality.

The way it is supposed to work is that the intelligence agencies gather and piece together a best guess estimate then turn it over to the elected officials, who decide what it means for the direction of the nation, according to the policies of the elected leadership. What has been happening in Washington is intelligence leaks meant to sink the ship of the Bush administration. It's an old story of chaos when there is no recognition of leadership and "everyone does what is right in his own eyes."

This will not only sink an administration, it will sink a whole nation if it is allowed to continue. That is why I am with those who are saying there needs to be further investigation into the NIE report and its latest conclusions. President Bush should not just roll over in this "Bushwhacking" as a Jerusalem Post editorial rightly called it this week.

Israeli reports have it that the Israeli Military Intelligence chief Gabi Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak will be presenting "hard core evidence" on the Iranian nuclear program tomorrow when Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff makes a rare visit to Israel on Sunday, 12/9. An Israeli defense official said of the NIE assessment, "The report clearly shows that we did not succeed in making our case over the past year....Mullen's visit is an opportunity to try and fix that."

Like I said, intel rarely consists of evidence so concrete that it is carved-in-stone fact. That is why intelligence must be interpreted and estimates given as to what the intel means. It is more than just guessing but it is not more than an educated guess. This is where policy comes into play and why the tug of war in Washington goes on between those who resist the policies of the Bush administration in the fight he is leading in Islamic terrorism and in U.S. policy in the Middle East.

In a Wall Street Journal article called Iran Curveball, editors wonder over the same thing I've been puzzled about in the past week, the editors writing, "What's amazing in this case is how the White House has allowed intelligence analysts to drive policy."

The president was surely blindsided in a major way. It is a back lash that even pulls the carpet out from under the foundation of a new start that was laid down for the Middle East in the Annapolis meetings. There will be unintended negative consequences always when rebellions like this are staged against the elected leaders.

That doesn't mean there can't be a turnaround. We can and should fight to negate the significance and the damage done by this NIE report.

John Bolton was immediately out in public speaking against the conclusions of the NIE report. We need to pay attention to him and to the many others now out there explaining what is really going on here.

I will be posting the the NIE Special Focus News Launch page on Sunday 12/9 afternoon at: http://www.israelprayer.com/NewsLaunch/NewsLaunchINDEX.html or sign up to receive the news launch via email.